China Redux

Robert Carlin and John Lewis published a very interesting op-ed in today’s Washington Post that provides an inside view on North Korea’s strategy to use its nuclear program to become a bigger player in East Asian power politics and ensure its long-term existence (”What North Korea Really Wants“).  Here is a key excerpt:

This is hard for Americans to understand, having read or heard nothing from North Korea except its propaganda, which for years seems to have called for weakening, not maintaining, the U.S. presence on the Korean Peninsula. But in fact an American departure is the last thing the North wants. Because of their pride and fear of appearing weak, however, explicitly requesting that the United States stay is one of the most difficult things for the North Koreans to do.

If the United States has leverage, it is not in its ability to supply fuel oil or grain or paper promises of nonhostility. The leverage rests in Washington’s ability to convince Pyongyang of its commitment to coexist with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, accept its system and leadership, and make room for the DPRK in an American vision of the future of Northeast Asia. Quite simply, the North Koreans believe they could be useful to the United States in a longer, larger balance-of-power game against China and Japan. The Chinese know this and say so in private.

More thoughts to come on this intriguing thesis.

The New York Times, blogging from the Davos World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007, has an interesting note on what it calls Asia’s “third-mover advantage” in the global arena.

Anne-Marie Slaughter, dean of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, said Asian countries want the best of both worlds:

“They look to the United States for how to run the economy and to the European Union for how to promote regional integration,” said Ms. Slaughter, a Davos regular who commented by phone because she was unable to make it this year.

Asia’s economic growth, and China’s in particular, is always the first thing remarked upon. But don’t overlook the important of Asia’s success at integrating politically at the regional level.

Leaders of Association of Southeast Asian Nations, known as ASEAN, have quietly endorsed a proposal to replace unanimity with majority voting to streamline decision-making and introduce sanctions for countries that move too slowly to implement joint decisions.

The new framework could be ratified as early as this year, Haruhiko Kuroda, president of the Asian Development Bank, said Friday at the conference in Davos.

“ASEAN is making great strides in integration,” Mr. Kuroda said.

The European Union, by contrast, has been paralyzed by a cumbersome decicion-making process, and the European constitution, which contained major institutional reforms, was rejected by French and Dutch voters last year. Asia, meanwhile, has created new institutions at every turn, resulting in a series of concentric circles of integration, from ASEAN to ASEAN+3 to ASEAN+6.

“Institutional innovation today is definitely in Asia,” Ms. Slaughter said.

What does Asian regional integration mean for the rest of the world? The US has vacillated on the issue, in particular when Asian integration could be seen as leaving the US out of the club.

And what will China’s role be in a new Asian order?

The New York Yankees are sending a “delegation” to Beijing next week that might lead to the establishment of a baseball academy in China, reports the Washington Post.

The team is sending its top brass in what would appear to be an effort to woo Chinese leaders in advance of the 2008 Olympics. Yankees President Randy Levine and General Manager Brian Cashman will head up the party.

“Everybody thinks that that is a great place to grow the sport of baseball,” Levine said. “There’s a real appetite for it. The Chinese want to move forward and expand their talents in the game and really make it a well-known, very active sport.”

Major League Baseball, along with every other major sports league, would love to make its sport the next big thing among China’s 1.3 billion consumers. Just don’t expect China to become a pipeline of talent to the MLB a la the Dominican Republican or even Japan. China got wailed on in last year’s Baseball World Series, going 0-3 in losses to Japan (18-2), South Korea (10-1) and Taiwan (12-3).

On other China sports front news, Houston Rockets All-Star center Yao Ming likely will not begin on-court workouts until after the February 16-18 NBA All-Star game after fracturing his tibia in late December.  Yao, who is averaging 26 points per game in the best season of his career, still managed to lead all NBA players in all-star voting.