China Redux

There’s a budding love affair between Africa and China, and the rest of the world appears to be jealous. In policymaking and politics, jealousy often finds expression in denunciations and outrage; thus the widespread criticism of China’s adventures in Africa. Development workers loathe the provision of aid without conditionality; worse, the US, Europe and international institutions give more money and do more in Africa than China ever has — but China gets the credit. And then there’s oil. While the US and Europe have had little choice but to divest from oil-rich, governance-poor countries like Sudan, China has swooped in to claim precious resources for a virtual song.

In this light, China’s strategy in Africa looks like a slam dunk. But it is a complete disaster in another — the international community — because it has served to confirm fears that China is not equipped to lead globally, or even play by the rules.

So, with President Hu wrapping up his 12-day, 8-country tour of the continent with a visit to South Africa, I thought it would be worth trying to pull together some larger observations about China’s position in the world today.

Here are five things China’s dalliance in Africa makes me think:

1. China is still obsessed with itself. For all the talk about China’s diplomacy and cultural sophistication and global integration, China remains very inward looking. Its leadership is focused on doing whatever it takes to sustain economic growth over the long-term and to limit real or potential domestic tensions. Three key reasons Africa fits with that strategy:

a. Natural resources: Oil. Metals. Enough said. For a more comprehensive review of China’s quest for oil and other natural resources in Africa, see this brief from the Council on Foreign Relations.

b. Partnering with Africa opens up new markets for Chinese goods and for Chinese capital (potentially high-growth investments).

c. Africa serves as a training ground for China’s surplus of well-educated engineeers. In Africa, this class of Chinese expatriates can gain experience they would never be able to find at home, due to the relative scarcity of high-level jobs.

2. China is neither savior nor imperialist. Most people have them in one camp or another. But it’s not really fair to say they’re one or the other. Instead, party officials stick to good old self-interest. Neither saving others nor exploiting them is really an integral part of that program, even if it sometimes appears that way.

3. China is not ready — and does not aim — to challenge the US or anyone else for global leadership right now. China is not going to become a peer competitor to the United States in the near future. The acute uncertainties China’s leadership evidently feels about its own political and economic foundation at home preclude it from investing the resources required to become a proactive agenda-setter on the global stage. The size of China’s economy, among other things, makes it a force to be reckoned with — just not another USSR.

4. China is still relatively naive about managing its agenda on the international stage. Either Chinese leaders don’t care what the world thinks about its interest-free loans to Sudan, or they didn’t realize it would provoke such hostility. I’m not sure which is worse. This is the second time in less than a month that Chinese leaders have completely misread the international zeitgeist; last month’s anti-missile test suggested that China was pretty much clueless about international space norms, which I wrote about earlier here. It’s hard to be a global leader if you’re not familiar with best practices.

5. The US and the rest of the world (in particular Europe, the UN and World Bank, Japan, Australia) need to invest more effort in working to bring China into the international system. This is a little counterintuitive, but it’s the only way to go unless you want to really isolate China and head towards another Cold War. We should work to make China feel more secure about its internal domestic situation (as the US is doing in North Korea, for example) rather than seeking to exploit those weaknesses. At the same time as we help China, we can also put more pressure on it to play a more productive role around the world. Doing so would make the world a safer place.