China Redux

It didn’t get much notice in the press — at least not compared to the wave of above-the-fold denunciations of China’s budding relationships in Africa — but Chinese President Hu Jintao’s comments in South Africa were absolutely astonishing. Here’s what Hu said in Pretoria on Wednesday, February 7, towards the close of an eight-country tour of Africa aimed at bolstering China’s image on the continent (via the Washington Post):

“For more than 100 years in China’s modern history, the Chinese people were subjected to colonial aggression and oppression by foreign powers and went through similar suffering and agony that the majority of African countries endured,” Hu said according to a transcript released by South African officials. He added: “China has never imposed its will or unequal practices on other countries and will never do so in the future.”

Call it the Hu Doctrine. In my estimation, this speech in Pretoria will go down as a major milestone in Chinese history. Ever since China began its ascent, the world has wondered and worried: What are China’s real intentions? Now we have an answer.

Whether we believe it or not is a separate question. As I wrote in an earlier post, I’m inclined to agree that China will not likely develop into an imperial power. But the Hu Doctrine leaves a lot of wiggle room. What does it mean that China will not “impose its will” on other countries? And what exactly are “unequal practices”? Isn’t undervaluing currency an unequal practice? What about severely restricting foreign investment in domestic markets? The list of nebulous practices could go on and on.

It’s also fascinating that Hu explicitly ties China’s international political strategies to the history of foreign powers in China. I just don’t buy the argument here. I can’t believe that the reason China will never be an aggressive (or imperialist) power is that the legacy of the Opium War so demonstrated the horrors of mercantilism (to take one example of Hu’s “oppression by foreign powers). I’d love to hear the POV of the Chinese historians out there on how China’s bitter experience with foreign powers over the last two hundred years has shaped the national consciousness and mood during China’s rise.

It will be interesting to watch out this plays out, and to see how this is covered in the Chinese press. In Africa Hu has laid down the law — one that will be repeated and studied for years to come in China and beyond.