China Redux

I thought it would be useful to take a look at the major owners of China policy in the Bush Administration at this point in time. [I was going to do a fancy graphic i.e. a magic quadrant, but didn't have the time].

Department of the Treasury

• Primary: Henry Paulson, Secretary
• Secondary: Alan Holmer, Special Envoy for China and the Strategic Economic Dialogue

State Department

• Primary: John Negroponte, Deputy Secretary
• Secondary: Christopher Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

U.S. Trade Representative

• Primary: Tim Stratford, Assistant US Trade Representative for China Affairs

U.S. International Trade Commission

• Charlotte Lane, Commissioner

Department of Defense

• Primary: Robert Gates, Secretary
• Secondary: Eric Edelman, Under Secretary for Policy
• Peter Rodman: Assistant Secretary for International Security Affairs

US Pacific Command (USPACOM)

• Admiral Timothy J. Keating has been nominated for the post, to replace Admiral William J. Fallon, who recently was confirmed as Commander of U.S. Central Command.

Surely I am missing some important folks in the administration. A fine list of men (just one women here — two others who might have been included, Condoleezza Rice and Susan Schwab, don’t handle enough China issues directly to merit inclusion).

ANALYSIS: The Bush Administration’s China economic policy team is mostly led by seasoned business executives who are likely to pursue a relatively mild diplomatic strategy with China. Paulson will be able to claim victory if and when Chinese officials approve a small appreciation of the remnibi. Former PHRMA exec Holmer, in the role of special envoy, will likely seek to further open China to foreign direct investment and US exports, as well as pushing for currency reform. Straftford at USTR has extensive experience as a business executive in China, including with General Motors; there are signs that the USTR could push protectionist trade measures, including lodging more formal trade complaints against China. It will be interesting to see how the USTR’s office and the ITC work together on this issue.

The security and defense side of the US-China relationship remains much rockier, and this weekend’s announcement of a major increase in China’s military spending did not help. VP Dick Cheney ultimately owns all major security decisions in the administation, which probably does not bode well for US-China cooperation. Cheney exerts considerable influence over a number of the players listed here. Edelman, the Undersecretary for Policy at the Pentagon, worked in Cheney’s office for many years as his chief security policy aide; Rodman is an influential neoconservative who spent many years at the Project for the New American Century, whose founding signatories include Bush administration notables Paul Wolfowitz, Elliot Abrams, Dick Cheney, Zalmay Khalilzad, Lewis Libby, Donald Rumsfeld, and Paula Dobriansky (wow, that’s nearly the whole crew). This school of thinkers generally does not trust China’s intentions and seeks to constrain its ability to become a peer competitor to the US. Secretary Gates’ sensibilities on China’s rise are less well known, but he is expected to focus on Iraq.

Negroponte is the former Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and Ambassador to Iraq. Many people feel that Rumsfeld and the Pentagon were able to steamroll the DNI to take control of many major intelligence functions during the bureaucratic restructuring of US intelligence following the Report of the 9/11 Commission. Given the general lack of confidence and trust that defines the State-Pentagon relationship, it seems unlikely that Negroponte and State would be able to beat back any serious push from the Pentagon on China security issues.

Incidentally, there is wild rumor going around the net, started by the New Republic, claiming that Negroponte took the deputy job at the State Department with the understanding that he would soon be named Secretary of State–once Condoleezza Rice steps in for the soon-to-be deposed Dick Cheney.

Lastly but perhaps most important, there is the military itself. Admiral William J. Fallon, the former Commander of US Pacific Command who had been one of the most outspoken proponents of closer U.S.-China military cooperation, was moved to head Central Command just one month ago. I don’t know much about Admiral Keating, who was nominated for the post. But given that he moves over from Northern Command and Northern Aerospace Defense Command, I would hypothesize that he is rather bullish on the China threat, and that the cooperative military drills initiated by Admiral Fallon could face choppy waters ahead.