China Redux

Yesterday I had a chance to speak with an aide to Richard Lawless, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Asia and Pacific Security Affairs at the Pentagon (who surely warrants inclusion on my list of Who’s Who in US-China policymaking). The bright, thoughtful man with whom I talked was marvelling at the breadth of joint activities and communication undertaken between the US and Japan on a daily basis. I won’t go into too much detail, but it’s no secret that nearly all US policy decisions in East Asia are coordinated with our Japanese friends. And that’s only on the security side; this cooperation extends, to a great extent, to economic issues as well.

The US relationship with Japan is the embodiment of a trusted, important alliance. And it got me thinking: can the US and China ever succeed in forging a security alliance of this kind? There are a great number of factors working against it. For one, the historical bases of the US-Japan alliance were (and are) highly unique, providing numerous shared interests and concerns and thus creating a powerful foundation for long-term cooperation. The US-Chinese relations does not offer this.

Another powerful factor working against a US-Chinese alliance is strong suspicions of the other’s strategic intent. In the US, distrust of China among top policymakers is widespread, although by no means unanimous. Still, it would prove very difficult to overcome domestic opposition to a US-Chinese alliance.

The volatility of US-Chinese trade and economic relations further dims the prospect of a security alliance. Economic prosperity is arguably both country’s top security issue, and the spectre of protectionism rising in the US means that both sides will likely feel more threatened by the other’s economic posture. Economic relations must regain a measure of stability before substantial bilateral security alliances can be achieved.

But even if the US and China are unable or unready to reach a more intensive bilateral alliance, there are growing indications that East Asia could be on the path to a regional security agreement. China’s productive, facilitating role in the Six Party talks, and the thawing of Japanese-Chinese relations (which I wrote about here), have led some to suggest that a pact — once thought impossible — could be attainable in the near future. Such an agreement would include, at the least, Japan, China, and Korea, and could be modeled after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Given what’s at stake in the US-Chinese relationship, a security alliance could go a long way towards making the world more secure and safe.