China Redux

Barack Obama delivered the first major foreign policy address of his Presidential campaign today at the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. Here are the lone references to China in the speech, as prepared for delivery (for a list of Obama’s five key points, see this NYT post):

And as we strengthen NATO, we should also seek to build new alliances and relationships in other regions important to our interests in the 21st century. In Asia, the emergence of an economically vibrant, more politically active China offers new opportunities for prosperity and cooperation, but also poses new challenges for the United States and our partners in the region. It is time for the United States to take a more active role here – to build on our strong bilateral relations and informal arrangements like the Six Party talks. As President, I intend to forge a more effective regional framework in Asia that will promote stability, prosperity and help us confront common transnational threats such as tracking down terrorists and responding to global health problems like avian flu.

In this way, the security alliances and relationships we build in the 21st century will serve a broader purpose than preventing the invasion of one country by another. They can help us meet challenges that the world can only confront together, like the unprecedented threat of global climate change.

And on the environment:

We should push for binding and enforceable commitments to reduce emissions by the nations which pollute the most – the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, and India together account for nearly two-thirds of current emissions. And we should help ensure that growth in developing countries is fueled by low-carbon energy – the market for which could grow to $500 billion by 2050 and spur the next wave of American entrepreneurship.

It is encouraging to hear Senator Obama take a measured yet firmly optimistic tone on the future of US-Chinese security relations. Obama’s reference to “a more effective regional framework” in Asia suggests he would likely pursue security cooperation and integration at the expense of the Bush Administration’s current hedge strategy towards China.

All in all, not a lot to go on here vis-a-vis China. Nonetheless, these remarks provide an important glimpse into the candidate’s directional views towards China. The issues surrounding US-Chinese relations are not likely to win the election, but could sabotage one’s chances. I expect Obama and his aides to navigate this issue in a smart, pithy manner. Iraq is the seminal foreign policy issue of the 2008 campaign, and Obama will see no reason to force a shift (at least, at this point in time).

But Iraq, like Vietnam, will one day fade into the recesses of American’s minds. When that happens, sometime during the administration of the next President of the United States, there will be China, first and foremost. Judging by his limited remarks today, Senator Obama would be well-suited to negotiate that relationship.